Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

682
FXUS64 KLUB 301928
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
228 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

 - Elevated fire weather conditions across the western South
   Plains on Monday afternoon.

 - Windy, very warm, and dusty Tuesday with a high fire danger.

 - Cooler, with rain chances late week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Short wave ridging was moving off east of the area late this
afternoon with a weak trough approaching the area from the west.
Additionally this evening, the stalled out frontal boundary will
receive a push from surface ridging oozing into the Plains. This
front will move into eastern New Mexico during the overnight hours
leaving light easterly winds area wide. We will see more zonal flow
aloft tomorrow as the surface ridge pulls way from the area.
Strengthening of an upper level trough across the Intermountain West
on Monday will lead to surface cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado
with a dryline developing in the western South Plains. Southeasterly
low level winds will keep conditions relatively moist east of the
dryline. Subsidence, deep boundary layer mixing, and southwesterly
winds will lead to dry conditions in the western South Plains and
extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. Deep mixing will again
contribute little to increasing surface winds with very light winds
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

No major adjustments to the extended forecast this iteration which
features wind, dust and fire weather Tuesday, followed by cooler
temperatures and a return of precipitation chances late week into
next weekend.

The long term kicks off on Tuesday with broad troughing overtaking
the western CONUS. Embedded within the longwave trough, one
shortwave will emerge over the central and northern High Plains
during the afternoon while additional energy drops into Great Basin.
The lead wave will spur cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies,
tightening the pressure/height gradient locally. In response,
southerly breezes early Tuesday will veer to the southwest and
increase through the day. Current NWP suggest a developing dryline
over our western zones Tuesday morning will mix into the eastern
Rolling Plains (somewhere near or just east of our CWA) by 00Z
Wednesday. Behind the dryline, downslope winds sustained around 30
knots will overspread the Caprock beneath a 35-45+ knot 700 mb jet.
The dry downslope winds will propel temperatures into the 80s and
lower 90s, which when coupled with RH values to around 10%, will
create critical fire weather. Hence, we have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for the entire area, valid Tuesday afternoon and evening.

A cold front of Pacific origin will follow early Wednesday, knocking
highs back 10-15 degrees from Tuesday. Despite the cooler
temperatures, even drier air will advect in on solidly breezy
westerly winds, keeping a heightened fire danger in the mix.

Thereafter, our attention will turn to a developing mid-upper low
over the Desert Southwest as well as a cold front marching southward
into region. Thursday will be a transition day, as the flow aloft
backs increasingly southwesterly. An embedded disturbance moving
through the flow may graze the FA Wednesday night and early
Thursday, potentially attempting to generate a few elevated
showers, but a dearth of low-level moisture will keep rain chances
low and fleeting. That said, any of the more robust showers aloft
could generate localized gusty and erratic surface winds Wednesday
evening/night. Low-level moisture will improve behind a cold
front early Friday. The improved moisture, in conjunction with
diffluent southwesterly flow atop the frontal zone, will support
increasing PoPs late week, continuing into much of the weekend.
Details regarding the evolution of the mid-upper low will still
have to be ironed out, but at the moment, the best chance for
widespread precipitation favor Friday and Friday night, perhaps
lingering into Saturday. There will be enough elevated instability
to support a thunder mention through this period despite cool and
stable low-levels. The current forecast has highs mostly in the
50s and lower 60s from Friday into the weekend, though even this
may be generous depending on how the cloud cover and precipitation
play out. In addition, it could even cool enough to bring a risk
for a little wintry precipitation across our northwestern zones
Saturday night, though precipitation chances may be dwindling by
this time. Regardless, it will be a notable change from the
prevailing dry and generally mild/warm weather of late.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A stalled out cold front will push through the area late this
afternoon into the evening shifting winds to the east and becoming
light. This front will increase moisture across the region with a
very small chance of MVFR CIGS early Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Although a cold front made significant progress across the South
Plains this afternoon, areas south of the front in the southwestern
South Plains will continue to see elevated fire weather conditions
for the next several hours. Very dry, warm, and breezy northwest
winds will continue for this area. The front will push through the
area during the overnight hours shifting winds to the east for the
entire area with light winds. A dryline will develop Monday
afternoon in eastern New Mexico but will only move into the western
South Plains. These areas may therefore see elevated fire weather
conditions on Monday afternoon as very dry and breezy southwest
winds move into the region.

Very warm, dry and windy conditions will create critical fire
weather on Tuesday and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the
entire forecast area. Elevated fire weather may linger into
Wednesday, before a cooler and wetter pattern unfolds late week
into next weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...01